Paris: Record-breaking temperatures in 2024 could signal that the Earth has entered a prolonged phase of global warming beyond the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, scientists have warned.
This milestone, set by the Paris Agreement, marks a tipping point associated with more severe weather events, rising sea levels, and ecosystem disruptions.
Two new studies published in Nature Climate Change highlight growing concerns that the planet may have already moved into a 20-year period of sustained warming at or above 1.5C. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 2024 was the first full calendar year to surpass this threshold. However, the Paris Agreement measures warming as a multi-decade average rather than a single-year event.
Researchers from Germany and Austria examined historical data and computer models, concluding that a single year above 1.5C is often an early warning that long-term warming at this level is imminent. Based on past trends, they estimate the world may officially cross the 1.5C threshold within the next decade unless urgent action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
A second study by Canadian scientist Alex Cannon reached similar conclusions, suggesting that a brief breach of 1.5C in 2024 likely indicates a more sustained exceedance by 2029. Meanwhile, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected a 50% chance of surpassing 1.5C by the early 2030s.
Despite these warnings, many countries have failed to submit updated emissions reduction plans aligned with the 1.5C target. Experts stress that keeping warming below this level would significantly reduce the risk of catastrophic climate impacts.
Last year’s extreme weather events—including deadly heatwaves, storms, and wildfires—offered a glimpse of what a 1.5C world might look like. Scientists say the latest findings should serve as a wake-up call rather than a cause for despair, urging governments to act decisively in reducing emissions before it is too late.
